Quarterly Update: 4th Quarter 2024
2024 is behind us, and here’s what the auto scene was like for Canadian dealers and consumers as we move into 2025.
Another year is in the books, and 2024 certainly was an interesting one. From the wake of the pandemic, and the microchip and vehicle shortages it spawned, we saw things start to straighten out in 2024 and move toward a more level path.
The Bank of Canada started the year with an interest rate of 5.0%, which put a damper on customer spending; but that began to drop in September, and by mid-December it was down to 3.25%. But the Canadian dollar also fell against the U.S. dollar, and in December you’d need as much as $1.44 Canadian to buy an American greenback.
Many dealers also had to handle the fallout from the CDK Global cyberattack in the summer, sending some stores back to paper and pen to sell or service vehicles. And there has been considerable political news in both Ottawa and Washington, with “we’ll have to wait and see” for the effects on the economy, trade, and tariffs.
Vehicle sales were strong during January and February, and then again in the fourth quarter. According to DesRosiers Automotive Consultants (DAC), that end-of-month surge was the result of buyers in Quebec buying zero-emission vehicles before the province cuts the rebates on them.
Canadian new-vehicle sales
DAC reports overall 2024 sales at an estimated 1.86 million vehicles, up 8.2% over the 1.72 million purchased in 2023. That’s higher than many experts expected, with many forecasting 1.77 million for the year.
That final figure is about 180,000 vehicles shy of the high we saw in 2017, even though DAC notes that from then until now, Canada’s population grew from 36.7 to 41.5 million residents.
The latest available provincial sales are from November 2024. Ontario led that month with 61,434 units, followed by Quebec at 39,686 vehicles. From there, it was British Columbia at 17,918; Alberta at 17,572; Manitoba at 4,511; Saskatchewan at 4,132; Nova Scotia at 3,689; New Brunswick at 3,396; Newfoundland at 2,597; and Prince Edward Island at 752 vehicles.
Canadian used vehicles
Canadian Black Book’s Used Vehicle Retention Index is based on its wholesale average value on two- to six-year-old vehicles as a percentage of their original MSRP. In December, the index was 135.7 points, compared to 136.2 in November; and compared to year-over-year, it was down by 7.6%. CBB said the decline in the wholesale market in the fourth quarter of 2024 was mainly due to the weakening Canadian dollar and more activity in the export market.
What’s searched and what’s sold
In early December, AutoTrader.ca reported that the top-searched used vehicles on its site, in order, were the Ford F-150, Toyota RAV4, Honda Civic, BMW 3 Series, Porsche 911, Ford Mustang, Mercedes-Benz C-Class, Honda CR-V, Chevrolet Corvette, and Toyota Tacoma.
What people actually bought wasn’t quite as aspirational. The Ford F-150 and Toyota RAV4 were also first and second on the list of the top vehicles sold, followed in order by the Ram 1500, Honda Civic, Ford Escape, Toyota Corolla, Nissan Rogue, Hyundai Elantra, and Hyundai Tucson.
The F-150 was the top vehicle searched in most regions except for Quebec, where it was topped by the Honda Civic. Of all vehicle searches across Canada on AutoTrader.ca, 49% were cars; 40% were SUVs; and 10% were for trucks. Searches for EVs were up 9% in 2024, but these only accounted for 8% of total vehicle searches on the site. Many who originally thought about an EV are now looking at gas-electric: of those EV intenders, 62% also looked at hybrids, and 60% at plug-in hybrids.
While full-year figures aren’t available yet, AutoTrader.ca reported in June that the average used-car price was $35,754, down 8.7% year-over-year; while the average new-car price was $66,550, down 1.9% from the same period in 2023.
Winners and losers in the big picture
According to DesRosiers, the market share of new-vehicle sales for light trucks hit a new record, thanks to growth in SUVs; but passenger cars fell to represent only 13.4% of total sales. Compact and subcompact SUVs enjoyed crazy growth, with compact sport-utes selling more than 560,000 vehicles. Luxury took a hit, though, significantly underperforming “as affordability issues came to the fore.”
Electrified vehicles also did well, helped by Quebec sales in the fourth quarter as mentioned, plus a number of new plug-in hybrids on the market.
DesRosiers also noted the following:
- May was the best sales month, an honour it hasn’t held since 2019; but overall, sales from March to November were mostly flat.
- General Motors led the market with more than 294,000 vehicles in 2024, partly thanks to significant sales of the Equinox EV.
- Ford was up 16.2% over 2023 and also had the largest share gain for 2024, up 1.1%. In a separate press release, Ford of Canada said it sold 279,221 vehicles in 2024; and its F-Series was the best-selling pickup in Canada for its 59th consecutive year, as well as the best-selling vehicle overall for 15 consecutive years.
- Among the larger volume brands, Volkswagen had the highest percentage sales gain at 28.2%.
- Subaru and Mazda also had strong sales growth, at 23.8% and 23.2% respectively.
Facts and figures on manufacturing
In an earlier release in December, DesRosiers noted that light-vehicle production in Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. remained flat in November with a total of 1.37 million units, down 0.1% from the year before.
In November 2023, the vehicle mix was 80.2% light trucks and 19.8% passenger cars; but in November 2024, light trucks were 82.6% of production to 17.4% of passenger cars.
During November 2024, production in the U.S. was flat, while it increased by 7.5% in Mexico, and fell by 18.6% in Canada, mostly due to plant retooling. The U.S. made 65.2% of North American vehicles that month, while Mexico accounted for 25.6%, and Canada just 9.2%.
All in all…
While it certainly didn’t set a record, 2024 finished better than many analysts had predicted, and an 8.2% gain over 2023 after some tumultuous years is stepping in the right direction. There’s always uncertainty with what a new year will bring, and this one will come with challenges, including political drama expected on both sides of the border; shrinking EV rebates and their effect on zero-emission sales; inflation and affordability; and those are just the ones we can predict. Happy New Year to all, and we’ll be back with another update three months from now.